Charts suggest it’s ‘way too early’ for the market to rebound

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Friday warned investors that the stock market is unlikely to recover anytime soon.

“The charts, as interpreted by Mark Sebastian … suggest that this market’s got more downside, and it’s way too early to go really bullish,” he said. 

“Unlike him, I also believe we could get a sharp spike up, but, for our Charitable Trust, if that happens we’re going to have to do some selling,” he added.

The S&P 500 closed out its worst month since March 2020 on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 8.8% for the month, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 10.5%.

Before getting into Sebastian’s analysis, Cramer first explained that when the S&P 500 goes lower, the CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the VIX or fear gauge, typically moves higher. And when the S&P moves higher, the VIX typically goes lower. 

He then examined a pair of charts showing the daily action in the S&P and the VIX:

While the S&P and VIX moved at the same pace in June, things took a turn in August. Sebastian notes that when the S&P started falling in late August, the VIX had a “slow-rolling rally” instead of roaring like it typically would, according to Cramer.

This mismatch in movement between the S&P and VIX’s movements continued through early September but only really exploded this week, Cramer said, adding that the market still is a long way from recovering.

“Sebastian’s waiting for the S&P to go down while the VIX also goes down — that’s a classic tell that a sell-off’s coming to an end,” he said. “That is not happening right now.”

For more analysis, watch Cramer’s full explanation below.