Georgia senate race between Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock

With just days to go before Georgia’s Senate runoff between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker, heavy hitters and big dollars from both national parties are pouring into the state for a race that will determine the balance of power in the Democratic-controlled Senate next year.

If the Republican prevails, the parties will again split the Senate 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris providing a tie-breaking vote and Democrats the slightest possible advantage.

Democrats will control the chamber after the party’s incumbents held their ground and Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman picked up a seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.

But this is still a race full of consequences.

In the short term, a Warnock victory would deliver more power to Democrats as they seek a firmer grip on the procedural life of the Senate, which could help them confirm more Biden nominees in a more expeditious manner. West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin would also lose some of his leverage, if Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had a vote to spare, which could hold added significance given Manchin is facing reelection in 2024.

Senate Minority Whip John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, spelled out the stakes on Monday.

Thune also conceded that his party could use a morale boost after underperforming expectations in the midterms, despite narrowly gaining control of the House.

“It’d be nice to get a win on the books, and especially in a state like Georgia, where, frankly, we think we should be winning,” Thune said.

Beyond that, looking ahead to the next election in 2024, Republicans – already with a more favorable map than this year – would be better positioned to win back a majority, perhaps a significant one, if Walker can pad their numbers now.